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News Detail

开年信贷投放超预期

  1
Issuing time:2022-02-14 19:18

 开年信贷投放超预期


  2月10日,中国人民银行公布了新年首份金融数据“成绩单”,1月人民币贷款增加3.98万亿元,是单月统计高点,同比多增3944亿元。


  1月社会融资规模增量为6.17万亿元,比上年同期多9842亿元。其中对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加4.2万亿元,是单月统计高点,同比多增3806亿元。


  这在分析人士看来,1月金融数据显示货币政策加大跨周期调节力度、靠前发力的效果已经显现,宽信用过程正在加速,为上半年稳定宏观经济大盘提供有力支撑。


  “信用的扩张比大家预期的要快”,中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷向中新财经分析道,在需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力之下,“1月份信贷数据超预期说明相关部门在去年末已经为稳增长做了很多准备,接下来经济增长的压力会有所减轻。”




资料图:某企业工作人员车间的生产线上忙碌。 中新社记者 于晶 摄


  企业中长期贷款需求回暖


  西部证券认为,贷款数据中最有积极意义得是企业部门1月新增中长期贷款同比多增,这也是该指标6个月以来的首次同比多增。“企业的预期逐步稳定,我们观察到企业端的中长期贷款需求也开始出现回暖。”


  央行披露数据显示,1月份,住户贷款增加8430亿元,其中,短期贷款增加1006亿元,中长期贷款增加7424亿元;企(事)业单位贷款增加3.36万亿元,其中,短期贷款增加1.01万亿元,中长期贷款增加2.1万亿元,票据融资增加1788亿元。


  据上海证券报报道,从多地银行业人士了解到,1月信贷投放重点集中在基础设施建设、先进制造、普惠金融等领域。同时,房地产融资渐次回归正常。


  就在1月,央行再次下调1年期贷款市场报价利率(LPR),5年期LPR更是20个月来首次下调。目前,企业贷款加权平均利率为改革开放四十多年来的最低水平。


  中国人民银行副行长刘国强上月表示,央行将继续促进企业综合融资成本稳中有降,推动金融系统向实体经济让利。李迅雷预计,央行后续仍可能会继续降准降息,同时更加积极的财政政策,如加大基建投资力度,促消费等可能也会跟上。


  11日,央行发布的《2021年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》亦提出,继续健全市场化利率形成和传导机制,发挥贷款市场报价利率改革效能,稳定银行负债成本,引导企业贷款利率下行。


人民币资料图。张云 摄


人民币资料图。张云 摄


  扩大信贷投放将更有力


  央行在《2021年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》中详细阐述下一阶段主要政策思路时提出,要实现总量稳、结构优的较好组合,保持货币信贷总量稳定增长,结构性货币政策工具积极做好“加法”。


  具体看,完善货币供应调控机制,持续缓解银行信贷供给的流动性、资本和利率三大约束,培育和激发实体经济信贷需求,引导金融机构有力扩大信贷投放,增强信贷总量增长的稳定性。


  落实好支持小微企业的市场化政策工具,用好碳减排支持工具和支持煤炭清洁高效利用专项再贷款,引导金融机构增加对信贷增长缓慢地区的信贷投放,精准发力加大对小微企业、科技创新、绿色发展等重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度。


  同时,央行强调,强化中小微企业金融服务能力建设,引导金融机构继续增加首贷、续贷、信用贷,推动形成敢贷、愿贷、能贷、会贷长效机制。

New Year's Credit Exceeds Expectations


On February 10, the People's Bank of China released the first financial data "transcript" of the new year. In January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, a monthly high, with an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year.


The increase in social financing scale in January was 6.17 trillion yuan, 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, the highest in a single month, with an increase of 380.6 billion yuan year-on-year.


In the eyes of analysts, the financial data in January showed that the effect of monetary policy's intensified cross-cycle adjustment and front-end efforts has already appeared, and the process of easing credit is accelerating, providing strong support for stabilizing the macroeconomic market in the first half of the year.


"The expansion of credit is faster than everyone expected," said Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai Securities, to Zhongxin Finance and Economics. Under the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations, "the January credit data exceeded expectations. It shows that the relevant departments have made a lot of preparations for stable growth at the end of last year, and the pressure on economic growth will be relieved in the future."




Data map: The production line of a company's staff workshop is busy. Photo by China News Agency reporter Yu Jing


Demand for medium and long-term loans of enterprises picks up


Western Securities believes that the most positive aspect of the loan data is the year-on-year increase in new medium and long-term loans for the corporate sector in January, which is also the first year-on-year increase in this indicator in six months. "Companies' expectations have gradually stabilized, and we have observed that the demand for medium and long-term loans on the corporate side has also begun to pick up."


According to the data disclosed by the central bank, in January, household loans increased by 843 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 100.6 billion yuan, and medium and long-term loans increased by 742.4 billion yuan; corporate loans increased by 3.36 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 3.36 trillion yuan. 1.01 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 2.1 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 178.8 billion yuan.


According to the Shanghai Securities News, people from the banking industry in many places have learned that the focus of credit issuance in January was in infrastructure construction, advanced manufacturing, and inclusive finance. At the same time, real estate financing is gradually returning to normal.


Just in January, the central bank lowered the one-year loan market quoted rate (LPR) again, and the five-year LPR was lowered for the first time in 20 months. At present, the weighted average interest rate of corporate loans is the lowest level in the more than 40 years of reform and opening up.


Liu Guoqiang, vice-governor of the People's Bank of China, said last month that the central bank will continue to promote stable and moderate declines in the comprehensive financing costs of enterprises, and promote the financial system to transfer profits to the real economy. Li Xunlei predicts that the central bank may continue to cut RRR and interest rates in the future, and at the same time, more active fiscal policies, such as increasing infrastructure investment and promoting consumption, may also follow.


On the 11th, the "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2021" issued by the central bank also proposed to continue to improve the formation and transmission mechanism of market-oriented interest rates, give full play to the efficiency of the reform of interest rates quoted in the loan market, stabilize the cost of bank liabilities, and guide corporate loan interest rates to fall.


RMB data map. Photo by Zhang Yun


RMB data map. Photo by Zhang Yun


Expanding credit will be more powerful


In the "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2021", the central bank proposed in detail the main policy ideas for the next stage, and proposed to achieve a better combination of stable total volume and excellent structure, maintain stable growth of monetary credit volume, and structural currency. Policy tools actively do a good job of "addition".


Specifically, we will improve the money supply control mechanism, continue to ease the three major constraints on bank credit supply: liquidity, capital and interest rates, cultivate and stimulate credit demand in the real economy, guide financial institutions to vigorously expand credit supply, and enhance the stability of total credit growth.


Implement market-oriented policy tools to support small and micro enterprises, make good use of carbon emission reduction support tools and special re-lending to support the clean and efficient use of coal, guide financial institutions to increase credit issuance to areas with slow credit growth, and make targeted efforts to increase the amount of credit for small and micro enterprises. Support for key areas and weak links such as enterprises, technological innovation, and green development.


At the same time, the central bank emphasized that it will strengthen the construction of financial service capabilities for small, medium and micro enterprises, guide financial institutions to continue to increase initial loans, renewal loans, and credit loans, and promote the formation of a long-term mechanism for daring, willing, able, and meeting loans.


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